Julie M. Arblaster

Julie Michelle Arblaster is an Australian scientist. She is a Professor in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University. She was a contributing author on reports for which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. She has received the 2014 Anton Hales Medal for research in earth sciences from the Australian Academy of Science, and the 2017 Priestley Medal from the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. She has been ranked as one of the Top Influential Earth Scientists of 2010-2020, based on citations and discussion of her work. in the Loddon Mallee region of Victoria, Australia. She earned a Bachelor of Technology in Atmospheric Science, from Macquarie University, Sydney, and in 1995 was awarded First Class Honours, also from Macquarie University, for her thesis titled "Investigation of the storm tracks of the mid-latitude regions in an AGCM". Her Honours supervisors were Bryant McAvaney and Ann Henderson-Sellers.

From 1997 to 1999 Arblaster studied at the University of Colorado, USA, where she obtained an MSc in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Her Masters thesis, supervised by Gerald Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research) and Andrew Moore (University of Colorado) was titled "Interdecadal modulation of Australian climate in the Parallel Climate Model". She was promoted to full Professor in July 2020.

Research interests

Arblaster developed an interest in meteorology during the first year of her science degree, and subsequently switched the focus of her degree to study Atmospheric Science. During her time as a student she completed a summer internship at the Bureau of Meteorology, which inspired her to learn more about the climate system.

Arblaster's research focuses on the global climate system and mechanisms of past, recent and future climate change. In 2009, she coauthored a paper connecting small changes in the sun's activity during the 11-year solar cycle to mechanisms in the stratosphere and the oceans. Modelling more than a century of data, the researchers were able to predict regional weather patterns such as the Indian monsoon and winter rainfall in North America. The results also showed that global warning could not be adequately explained by the solar cycle. Identifying and isolating the impact of small stratospheric changes was an important step in developing accurate predictive models.

Arblaster uses climate models to understand shifts in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), linking tropical variability and climate extremes. Arblaster is interested in the interplay between the predicted recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole over coming decades and greenhouse gas increases in future climate projections. She is developing models that can demonstrate the likelihood of extreme weather events and the contribution of human-caused climate change to such events.

Arblaster was a contributing author to the Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007, and a lead author on Chapter 12, Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, of the Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

Arblaster is a member of the World Climate Research Programme Stratospheric-Tropospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) scientific steering group.

Some of the most recent climate models suggest that the impact on "climate sensitivity" may be worse than previously anticipated. Arblaster is a signatory to a 2020 statement from 423 Australian scientists who have affirmed that "Scientific evidence unequivocally links human-caused climate change to the increasing risk of frequent and severe bushfires in the Australian landscape" and called on the Australian government "to develop science-informed policies to combat human-caused climate change" and "reduce Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions".

Honours

In 2014 Arblaster was awarded the Anton Hales Medal for research in earth sciences by the Australian Academy of Science. This award recognised Arblaster's research on the global climate system and its sensitivity to changes.

In 2017, Arblaster won the Priestley Medal from the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.

Arblaster was a contributing author to the reports of the IPCC for which the IPCC was a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Professional memberships Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, et al. 2013. "Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility." In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. TF Stocker, D Qin, GK Plattner, M Tignor, SK Allen, et al. pp. 1029–1136. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press.