Peter Arcidiacono

Peter S. Arcidiacono (born 1971) is an American economist and econometrician. After receiving his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1999, he has taught at Duke University. He became a fellow of the Econometric Society in 2018.

Arcidiacono is known for his research contributions to three fields: affirmative action in higher education, structural estimation of dynamic discrete choice models, and college major choice, having written survey papers on each topic.

He has also published papers on peer effects, racial discrimination, the minimum wage, and marriage markets.

Early life and career

Peter S. Arcidiacono was born in Oregon in 1971. He graduated from Tigard High School in 1990, completed a B.S. in economics in 1993 at Willamette University, and received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1999 under the supervision of John Kennan.

Arcidiacono spent 27 years at Duke University (assistant professor, 1999–2006, associate professor, 2006–2010, and full professor, 2010–2026). He later joined Johns Hopkins University as a professor as well as Vice Dean of Faculty Affairs at the School of Government and Policy.

Research and contributions

Affirmative action in higher education Arcidiacono's research on affirmative action in higher education has centered on the theme that there exists a trade-off between institutional quality and the fit between a school and a student.

Arcidiacono's expertise in this field led to his being hired as an expert witness in the Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard lawsuit.

Dynamic discrete choice models

Arcidiacono, along with Robert A. Miller and John Bailey Jones, is the co-developer of using the Expectation–maximization algorithm and conditional choice probabilities (CCPs) to simplify the maximum likelihood estimation of structural econometric models. These methods allow a researcher to estimate the structural parameters of an economic model in stages because of additive separability in the objective function. Additionally, CCPs allow the researcher to estimate the structural parameters without having to fully solve the agent's dynamic decision problem. Both approaches result in substantial computational gains.

College major choice Arcidiacono's work on college major choice has used dynamic discrete choice models to understand how much student decisions are driven by future labor market earnings versus other factors, such as academic ability, enjoyment of college coursework, or future occupational match. He has also used elicited expectations models to answer similar questions.

Arcidiacono's paper with Esteban Aucejo and Ken Spenner, entitled What happens after enrollment? An analysis of the time path of racial differences in GPA and major choice, analyzed data from Duke University and found that African American students switch out of more academically difficult majors at higher rates than their peers. However, the study found no gap in switching once adjusting for differences in academic background. Members of the Duke University Black Student Alliance protested the paper.

Professional service Arcidiacono has served in several editorial positions since 2007: Co-editor, Quantitative Economics, (July 2016–present) Foreign editor, Review of Economic Studies (October 2011 – October 2017) Associate editor, Journal of Applied Econometrics, (January 2007–present) Associate editor, AEJ: Applied Economics, (May 2009 – May 2012) Editor, Journal of Labor Economics, (July 2008 – July 2013) Co-editor, Economic Inquiry, (December 2007 – January 2011)

University admissions lawsuits Along with Richard D. Kahlenberg, Arcidiacono was hired by Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA) to serve as an expert witness in the Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College lawsuit, which was heard by Allison D. Burroughs in Massachusetts federal district court in Boston in October 2018. Harvard hired Ruth Simmons and David Card as its expert witnesses.

Arcidiacono and Kahlenberg also served as expert witnesses for SFFA in the Students for Fair Admissions v. UNC lawsuit, with the defendants hiring Caroline Hoxby and Bridget Terry Long. That lawsuit has yet to receive a trial date.

Amicus briefs On June 15, 2018, many documents surrounding the Harvard litigation (including the expert reports of Arcidiacono and Card) were publicly unsealed. About six weeks later, a group of economists filed an amicus brief in support of Arcidiacono's findings in his expert witness report. The economists involved were Michael Keane, Hanming Fang, Yingyao Hu, Glenn Loury, and Matthew Shum. The brief also argued that Card's decision to not pool applicants across admissions cycles was correct. This group of economists consisted of Susan Dynarski, Harry J. Holzer, Hilary Hoynes, Guido Imbens, Alan B. Krueger, Helen F. Ladd, David S. Lee, Trevon D. Logan, Alexandre Mas, Michael McPherson, Jesse Rothstein, Cecilia Rouse, Robert M. Solow, Lowell J. Taylor, Sarah Turner, and Douglas Webber.

Personal life Arcidiacono is a devout Catholic, husband, and father of five children. He has publicly discussed issues of being a Christian in academia.

Selected publications

Affirmative action in higher education

Estimation of dynamic discrete choice models

College major choice