David Leiser

David Leiser (; born April 1, 1952) is an Israeli cognitive psychologist, polymath, and Professor Emeritus at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. A former research assistant to Jean Piaget. His research explores the "lay theories" people use to navigate complex systems—ranging from macroeconomics and geopolitical forecasting to Artificial Intelligence.

Leiser has served as President of the Economic Psychology division of the International Association of Applied Psychology (IAAP) and was president of the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP) from 2011 to 2014. He also explored the construction of knowledge in children, such as the synthesis of astronomical and biological concepts regarding "birthdays."

Economic Psychology and "Causal Clusters" In How We Misunderstand Economics and Why It Matters (2018), Leiser argues that the human brain relies on "Causal Clusters"—simplified, narrative-driven mental models—to navigate macroeconomics, for which it lacks an evolutionary endowment. This leads to systematic misunderstandings of systemic feedback and equilibrium.

Forecasting and the "Cassandra" Problem In the 2020s, Leiser's research expanded into predictive intelligence. In the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2025), he investigated the "Cassandra" phenomenon: the psychological barriers that prevent accurate geopolitical forecasts from being utilized by decision-makers.

AI and Cognitive Epistemology Leiser’s current work addresses the "epistemic impasse" in Artificial Intelligence. Drawing on genetic epistemology, he argues that while Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve associative plausibility, they lack the structural "internal organization" and logical necessity inherent in human cognitive architecture.

Selected publications