Clive Granger

Sir Clive William John Granger (; 4 September 1934 – 27 May 2009) was a British econometrician known for his contributions to nonlinear time series analysis. He taught in Britain, at the University of Nottingham and in the United States, at the University of California, San Diego. Granger was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2003 in recognition of the contributions that he and his co-winner, Robert F. Engle, had made to the analysis of time series data. This work fundamentally changed the way in which economists analyse financial and macroeconomic data.

Biography

Early life Clive Granger was born in 1934 in Swansea, south Wales, United Kingdom, to Edward John Granger and Evelyn Granger. The next year his parents moved to Lincoln.

During World War II Granger and his mother moved to Cambridge because Edward joined the Royal Air Force and deployed to North Africa. Here they stayed first with Evelyn's mother, then later Edward's parents, while Clive began school. Clive would later recall a primary school teacher telling his mother that "[Clive] would never be successful".

Clive started secondary school in Cambridge, but continued in Nottingham, where his family moved after the war. Here two teachers encouraged Granger's interest in physics and applied mathematics. He had anticipated following the convention of completing schooling at age 16 to enter the workforce and saw himself working in a bank or insurance company. However, positive social influence from his peers and support from his father led him to enroll in sixth-form for two years as preparation for a university degree. Granger became interested in forecasting. For the next few years he worked on this subject with his post-doctoral student, Paul Newbold; and they wrote a book which became a standard reference in time series forecasting (published in 1977). Using simulations, Granger and Newbold also wrote the famous 1974 paper on spurious regression which led to a re-evaluation of previous empirical work in economics and to the econometric methodology.

Granger spent 22 years at the University of Nottingham. In 2005, the building that houses the Economics and Geography Departments was renamed the Sir Clive Granger Building in honor of his Nobel prize award.

In 1974 Granger moved to the University of California at San Diego. In 1975 he participated in a US Bureau of Census committee, chaired by Arnold Zellner, on seasonal adjustment. At UCSD, Granger continued his research on time series, collaborating closely with Nobel prize co-recipient Robert Engle (whom he helped bring to UCSD), Roselyne Joyeux (on fractional integration), Timo Teräsvirta (on nonlinear time series) and others. Working with Robert Engle, he developed the concept of cointegration, introduced in a 1987 joint paper in Econometrica; for which he was awarded the Nobel prize in 2003.

Granger also supervised many PhD students, including Mark Watson (co-advisor with Robert Engle).

In later years Granger also used time series methods to analyse data outside economics. He worked on a project forecasting deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. In 2003, Granger retired from UCSD as a professor emeritus. He was a Visiting Eminent Scholar of the University of Melbourne and the University of Canterbury. He was a supporter of the Campaign for the Establishment of a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly, an organisation which campaigns for democratic reform of the United Nations.

Granger was married to Patricia (Lady Granger) from 1960 until his death. He was survived by their son, Mark William John, and their daughter, Claire Amanda Jane.

Honors and awards In 2003, Granger and his collaborator Robert Engle were jointly awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He was made a Knight Bachelor in the New Year's Honours in 2005.

Granger was a fellow of the Econometric Society since 1972 and a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy since 2002. In 2004, he was voted as one of the 100 Welsh Heroes.