Amit Saar

Amit Saar (; 1978 – January 1, 2026) was an Israeli intelligence officer who led the Military Intelligence Research Department from 2020 to 2024. He held various positions within the Israeli intelligence community prior to becoming Israel's top intelligence evaluator.

While in charge of the Research Department, Saar warned prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a potential attack by Israel's enemies due to domestic turmoil caused by the 2023 judicial reform protests. However, he failed to predict the October 7 attacks by Hamas, and is widely held accountable for the intelligence failures that enabled the attack. After indicating that he would step down from his position over his responsibility for the attacks, he resigned in April 2024 following a cancer diagnosis.

Early life and education Amit Saar was born in Haifa in 1978. He joined the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) Academic Reserve in 1996, studying at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem for a bachelor's degree in Middle Eastern studies and philosophy. He later traveled to the United States, where he graduated from Brandeis University with a master's degree in international conflict resolution. He underwent another year of studies in 2017 at the National Security College, and graduated with a master's in political science from the University of Haifa.

Intelligence career Saar first joined the Intelligence Corps, serving in the Jordan Research Section. He gave an interview to Walla! in 2022, calling the Gaza Strip under Hamas a "chronic problem" with no solution. He added, "To all those who want to go in and conquer Gaza, no one wants to stay in Gaza. You can conquer Gaza, but then there is one small problem: you are left with Gaza. No one wants that. Everyone has learned that it is better not to." Speaking of the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests in Iran, he told the Gazit Institute that, "The repressive Iranian regime will, it seems, manage to survive these protests," as Iran has created "very, very strong tools" to manage such protests, but they would cause a years-long problem for the Iranian government in the future.

Before the Gaza war broke out in October 2023, Saar was seen as a "brilliant analyst" who could accurately predict trends within Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Prior to the 7 October attacks, he sent four letters to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in March and July 2023 warning that with domestic tensions caused by protests against Netanyahu's judicial reform plan, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas saw Israel "in a blistering, unprecedented crisis threatening its cohesion" that they could exploit "to create the perfect storm". He wrote a total of four letters to Netanyahu, which he ignored. The fourth letter was scheduled to be sent after October 7. One of the letters prompted a speech by then-defense minister Yoav Gallant speaking out against Netanyahu's judicial reform. Netanyahu fired Gallant in response, but reversed his decision due to public backlash.

Despite his warnings, Saar failed to foresee the October 7 attacks. He believed that Hamas had been weakened and deterred from a conflict with Israel, and he mainly focused on the threat of Hezbollah. On the night leading up to the attacks, he was awoken at 3:30 a.m. local time with intelligence that Hamas operatives had activated Israeli SIM cards on their phones. At the time, he did not realize that this indicated an imminent attack.

Saar is seen as one of the officials bearing the most responsibility for Israel's intelligence failure that enabled the attacks. In a later analysis, Saar believed that Hamas's change of strategy began in 2021, when Sinwar and Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif saw success in the May 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis, not only surviving the air war but encouraging thousands of Arab Israelis to clash with police within Israel.

Personal life Saar had a wife and three children.