Ronald J. Stouffer

Ronald J. Stouffer is a meteorologist and adjunct professor at the University of Arizona, formerly Senior Research Climatologist and head of the Climate and Ecosystems Group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), part of NOAA.

Stouffer is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, to which he was elected “for his path-breaking development of coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models and their use in research on the oceans’ role in climate change”. He is recognized for the accuracy of his models. He has published at least 220 papers on climate change, and has been recognized as a Highly Cited Researcher by Clarivate Analytics for multiple years. He serves on the editorial board of Climate Dynamics.

Stouffer has been both a member and chair of the Working Group on Climate Modeling of the World Climate Research Program (1993-),

Early life and education Stouffer earned his BS (1976) and MS (1977) in Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University. In the 1980s, Manabe and Stouffer tested a theory proposed by Wally Broecker, that Lake Agassiz, a giant meltwater lake, could have caused abrupt cooling by flooding into the Atlantic. They used ocean-coupled general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the role of ocean flows in ice ages. In one of the first climate modeling studies to investigate the stability of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. Manabe and Stouffer (1988) presented a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model, and demonstrated that it was possible for the model to reach more than one equilibrium state. One state was similar to the current climate, while the second state showed the effects of warming flows of meltwater. This Paleoclimate modelling associated changes in the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean over glacial–interglacial time periods with abrupt transitions in climate in the North Atlantic region. Further work by Manabe and Stouffer (1995) showed that meltwater could also result in a series of sharp temperature rises and falls.

Stouffer and Manabe showed remarkable accuracy in predicting future world-wide global patterns of warming that match patterns of warming since observed. Both "the projected surface pattern of warming, and the vertical structure of temperature change in both the atmosphere and ocean, were realistic." The first large model that demonstrated polar sensitivity in temperature effects was Manabe and Stouffer (1980). There is now high confidence that the Arctic surface will continue to warm at a higher rate than the global average during the 21st century.

Stouffer has been a lead author, contributing author, and review editor on multiple reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, He has been a chapter author for Working Group 1 assessment reports in 1995, 2001, and 2007 and was an expert reviewer in 2013. He has also worked on the Summary for Policymakers for Working Group I and the Summary for Policymakers for the Synthesis Report of the IPCC reports. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for its work, to which Stouffer contributed.

Awards and honors 2016, NOAA Distinguished Career Award, “For pioneering the understanding of climate sensitivity through discovery of fundamental mechanisms and global Earth System modeling”. 2012, Alumni Fellowship, Pennsylvania State University 2008, NOAA Administrator's Award, joint award, “for outstanding dedication to developing U.S. CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products integrating climate research for decision support.” 2007, Fellow, American Meteorological Society

Selected publications