Michael Lewis-Beck

Michael Steven Lewis-Beck (born October 29, 1943) is an American political scientist and the F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. His research focuses on comparative politics, political forecasting, and political methodology.

Education and career Lewis-Beck earned a Bachelor of Arts with honors from Ball State University in (1965). He also has a Master of Arts and a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. He earned his MA in August 1966, taking a gap in studies through 1966 to 1968 to serve in the Peace Corps in Guatemala. He earned his Ph.D. five years later in December 1973. Professor Beck's main areas of study are comparative politics, methodology, Western Europe, and the political economy.

He was formerly the editor-in-chief of the American Journal of Political Science from 1993 to 1994 and a past president of the Political Forecasting Group of the American Political Science Association.

He was a visiting professor at Harvard University, University of London, GESIS-Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, University of Copenhagen, LUISS University, University of Leuven, Koc University, University of Siena, Italy, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, University of Manchester, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, University of Nantes, and Institut d’Etudes Politiques.

Media Lewis-Beck has received media attention for his predictions of the results of United States presidential elections based on economic factors. Lewis-Beck told ABC News that the economy is "always at or near the top of the average voter’s agenda."

He predicted that George H. W. Bush would win the 1992 presidential election, that Bill Clinton would win in 1996, and that Al Gore would win easily in 2000, telling the Washington Post that May that "It's not even going to be close." After Gore lost the 2000 election, Lewis-Beck modified his model to take job growth during the incumbent president's previous four-year term into account. In 2016, he correctly predicted a 51% two-party popular vote share for Hillary Clinton. Using polls on voter expectations for the winning presidential candidate in the 2024 election, Lewis-Beck forecast a victory by Kamala Harris.

Personal life Lewis-Beck resides in Iowa City, Iowa.

Books

Stubager, R., Hansen, K. M., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Nadeau, R. (2021). The Danish voter: Democratic Ideals and Challenges. University of Michigan Press. . Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M., Gélineau, F., & Ratto, M. C. (2019). Elecciones Latinoamericanas: Selección y Cambio de Voto. P.I.E-Peter Lang. . Dassonneville, R., Hooghe, M., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (Eds.). (2018). Electoral Rules and Electoral Behaviour: The Scope of Effects. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. . Nadeau, R., Bélanger, E., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Turgeon, M., & Gélineau, F. (2017). Latin American Elections: Choice and Change. University of Michigan Press. . Kritzinger, S., Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R., & Zeglovits, E. (2013). The Austrian Voter. Vienna University Press. . Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R., & Bélanger, E. (2012). French Presidential Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. . Lewis-Beck, M. S., Norpoth, H., Jacoby, W. G., & Weisberg, H. F. (2008). The American Voter Revisited. University of Michigan Press. . Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2004). The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. . Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1995). Data Analysis: An Introduction. Sage Publications. . Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Rice, T. W. (1992). Forecasting Elections. CQ Press. . Norpoth, H., Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Lafay, J.-D. (1991). Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. University of Michigan Press. . Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988). Economics and elections: The Major Western Democracies. University of Michigan Press. . Berry, W. D., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1986). New Directions in Social Science Research: Methods and Applications. Sage Publications. . Eulau, H., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (Eds.). (1985). Economic conditions and electoral outcomes: The United States and Western Europe. Agathon Press. . Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1980). Applied Regression: An Introduction. Sage Publications. .