Florence Gaub

Florence Gaub (born 1977) is a Franco-German researcher, security expert and futurist who focuses on foresight based policy formation for international relations and security policy. She is director of the research division at the NATO Defense College (Rome). She worked as deputy director at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) in Paris from February 2018 until May 2022, worked as foresight advisor at the General Secretariat of the Council and was Visiting Professor at the College of Europe, member of the World Economic Forum Global Future Councils on Complex Risks (2021 - 2025).

Early life and education Gaub studied political science at LMU Munich (MA, 1997-2002) and part of these studies at SciencesPo Paris (2000 - 2001). She also obtained a Master's degree from Sorbonne University (2003–2004). Apart from her native languages German and French she says she speaks English, Arabic and Italian.

She obtained a PhD in International Politics from Humboldt University, Berlin, in 2009 with a dissertation on "Multiethnic armies and civil war: the cases of Nigeria, Lebanon and Bosnia-Herzegovina", for which she spent considerable time in the field and which was later also published as a book for Routledge in 2010.

Career From 2009 till 2013 she worked at the NATO Defense College in Rome, coordinating Middle East research and conducting training courses for military officers from Arab countries. In 2013 Gaub joined the EUISS as head of the Middle East and North Africa programme where she was promoted to Deputy Director in 2018 and built up foresight capacities and capabilities until leaving the Institute in May 2022.

Gaub specializes in strategic foresight and matters of international security, advising high level decision makers in governments and IOs such as NATO, OSCE, UN or of course, at EU level. From 2012 till 2015 she was also a reserve officer in the French army with the rank of major. She also taught at the University of Potsdam and at Sciences Po in Paris. Raised in Munich, Gaub interned in the cabinets of German politicians from Bavaria, Ludwig Wörner in 2002 and Axel Berg in 2007-2008. Gaub was vice-president at the European Forum Alpbach (From 2021 - 2024). She is presently a member of the Global Future Council on Geopolitics.

Gaub has commented on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine in the media and, in particular, on German late night political talk shows. She also published in media such as Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung and Die Welt.

In an appearance on the talk show Markus Lanz on 12 April 2022, Gaub drew attention for commenting that, in her view, Russian society does not share the “liberal, post-modern approach to life” found in parts of Western Europe and that make opposition to war casualties pronounced. She later elaborated on this in an interview with Die Zeit. Her statements have been criticized as "racist" and reflecting a "centuries old colonialist trope used to justify genocide".

In 2023, Gaub was ranked in Politico's Power 40 Brussels Class of 2023 list. In 2024, Gaub was awarded the Bavarian Constitutional Order for her work. In same 2024, she published the graphic novel NATO 2099.

Selected works Books Military Integration after Civil Wars. Multiethnic Armies, Identity and Post-Conflict Reconstruction. Routledge, 2010 Guardians of the Arab State: why militaries intervene in politics. Hurst: London, 2017 The Cauldron: NATO’s Libya Operation. Hurst: London, 2018 The images of war in French literature. Duisburg: WiKu-Verlag Verlag für Wissenschaft und Kultur, 2008 (in German) Zukunft. Eine Bedienungsanleitung. dtv: München, 2023 (in German) Futuro: un manual de instrucciones (2024)

Future: A manual (Hurst, 2026) Szenario: Die Zukunft steht auf dem Spiel (dtv), 2025 NATO 2099 (Graphic novel), 2025 What if... 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028, NATO Defense College, 2025

Articles How to Get Better at Making Warnings, World Economic Forum, 2021 Global Trends to 2030, European Commission, 2019 Why Does Foresight Matter in a Time of Crisis?, Institut Montaigne, 2020 Europe’s Bad Nuclear Options - And Why They May Be the Only Path to Security, foreignaffairs.com, June 24, 2025