Decker Eveleth

Decker Eveleth is an associate research analyst at the CNA Corporation who specializes in utilizing satellite imagery and mixed methods to assess ballistic and cruise missile forces in the Middle East and Asia. His work on tracking ballistic missiles has been featured in the Washington Post, The Economist and Foreign Policy. Eveleth received international attention in 2021 for identifying the construction of 119 nuclear ICBM silos under construction in China. In 2024, he was able to identify the probable deployment site of Russia's nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik cruise missile.

Education and academic work Eveleth received a BA from Reed College and an MA from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Research China Eveleth's work has focused on tracking the growth of China's nuclear arsenal. In 2020, Eveleth and other researchers created an open-source map showing the location of each Chinese missile brigade and the type of missile assigned to it. Eveleth used a combination of open source intelligence methods and satellite imagery analysis to build the database of missile deployments, which identified at least 600 ballistic and cruise missile armed launchers operated by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force.

ICBM silo construction discovery In June 2021, Eveleth's tracking of solid-fueled nuclear missile silos in China resulted in the identification of 119 new ICBM silos intended for nuclear missiles under construction near Yumen, China, and was featured on the front page of the Washington Post. Eveleth identified that building began in March 2020, with most construction occurring after February 2021, and concluded that the silos were likely meant for the DF-41 ICBM, which can reach the U.S. mainland. Eveleth's discovery also earned him a feature in Bloomberg's "50: The People and Ideas That Defined Global Business in 2021". The analysis prompted condemnation from Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief and Chinese Communist Party Committee Secretary of the Global Times.

Middle East In October 2024, following the Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel, Eveleth analyzed satellite imagery of Nevatim Air Base, identifying 32 impact points. Subsequent analysis from Eveleth further identified the expected circular error probability (CEP) of Iran's missiles to be poor, between 700-1000m, making them unsuitable for use against hardened aircraft shelters like those used to protect Israel's F-35 fleet (a presumed target of the attack).

Following Israel's retaliatory airstrikes, Eveleth and former UN weapons inspector David Albright independently assessed that Israel struck facilities at the Parchin military complex and the Khojir missile production site. Again utilizing Planet Labs satellite imagery, Eveleth identified the destruction of three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse at Parchin, as well as two hits on similar fuel mixing facilities at Khojir. Eveleth noted that the solid-fuel mixers Israel claimed to have been targeting are difficult to make, and export controlled, and thus very expensive to produce and replace; and that as a result, Israel may have "significantly hampered Iran's ability to mass produce missiles". regarding the similarities between the North Korean Hwasong-18 and Russian RT-2PM2 Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Russia In 2024, Eveleth identified the probable deployment site of Russia's nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik ("Skyfall") cruise missile at the Vologda-20 nuclear storage facility.

Publications How North Korea’s Tactical Missile Deployment Aggravates Risks of Nuclear Use, NK News (August, 2024) People's Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterrey (July 2023)

Blogs and online journals Eveleth is the author of the Hors d'Oeuvers of Battle blog, where he publishes independent analysis. He additionally contributes to Foreign Policy, and to NK News and is a frequent collaborator with non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis on the Arms Control Wonk blog and podcast.