B. John Garrick

B. John Garrick (March 5, 1930 – November 1, 2020) was an American nuclear engineer and risk scientist recognized as a pioneer in the development of Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Across a career spanning more than five decades, he founded the consulting firm PLG, Inc. to apply quantitative risk methods to complex engineered systems in fields such as nuclear power, aerospace, chemical processing, and transportation. Garrick's early research, including his 1968 doctoral dissertation at the University of California, Los Angeles, helped establish an analytical framework now widely adopted to quantify the likelihood and consequences of low-probability, high-impact events. He received multiple honors for his contributions, notably election to the National Academy of Engineering for “making quantitative risk assessment an applied science and a fundamental part of engineering design.”

Garrick served two terms as chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board (2004–2012) following his appointment by President George W. Bush. He was a Distinguished Adjunct Professor at UCLA and played an active role in launching the university's B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences with a significant philanthropic gift in 2014. Among other professional distinctions, he was a Fellow of the American Nuclear Society, the Society for Risk Analysis, and the Institute for the Advancement of Engineering. Under his leadership, PLG conducted some of the first full-scope probabilistic risk studies of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants, including the pioneering work at the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station.

In 1981, Garrick and longtime collaborator Stan Kaplan published a seminal paper in the journal Risk Analysis that introduced the “risk triplet” concept: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood of it happening? And what are the consequences?

Their framework became widely adopted in nuclear safety analysis and eventually spread to other high-consequence industries, helping establish probabilistic risk assessment as a cornerstone of modern engineering practice.

Academic and consulting career Beginning in the late 1970s, Garrick maintained active ties to academia while overseeing PLG, Inc. He was a frequent lecturer in nuclear engineering courses at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and served as an adjunct professor at Vanderbilt University. providing guidance on strengthening the security and safety of nuclear facilities in the United States.

Yucca Mountain testimony While chairing the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board (NWTRB), Garrick provided testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives’ Subcommittee on the Federal Workforce and Agency Organization in April 2005, outlining the NWTRB's ongoing review of the scientific and technical aspects of the Yucca Mountain repository proposal. In his remarks, he stressed the Board's role in offering independent evaluations of the Department of Energy’s data and analyses, and emphasized the importance of thorough investigations into potential issues with repository performance and scientific integrity.

Outside of official testimonies, Garrick also contributed a “pro” perspective on Yucca Mountain in a IEEE Spectrum editorial, arguing that indefinite on-site spent-fuel storage was not a viable long-term solution and that a carefully engineered geologic repository—backed by robust probabilistic risk assessments—could offer greater nuclear safety and security. He acknowledged weaknesses in some DOE analyses but maintained that subsequent oversight from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and adherence to risk-informed regulation could address remaining uncertainties.

Research Garrick's research focused on quantitative methods to evaluate the safety and reliability of high-hazard systems. He authored or coauthored more than 250 technical papers and reports on reliability, risk engineering, and safety analysis.

Notably, his published works include: Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks (Foreword by George E. Apostolakis, Elsevier Academic Press, 2008), on PRA applications for low-probability, high-consequence events. The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk (co-edited with W.C. Gekler, Plenum Press, 1991), featuring research papers and case studies in engineering and public policy. Power Plant Availability Engineering (Electric Power Research Institute, 1982), which introduced probabilistic techniques for improving power-generation reliability.

He also contributed to multi-author volumes on nuclear energy, risk communication, and engineering safety, and delivered short-course lectures at universities and industry symposia. Through his publications, teaching, and public service, he helped make PRA a cornerstone of modern engineering risk analysis.

Awards and recognition Garrick's contributions to risk assessment and nuclear science earned him the 2019 W. Bennett Lewis Award for Sustainable Energy and Development from the American Nuclear Society. He was a fellow of the American Nuclear Society, the Society for Risk Analysis, and the Institute for the Advancement of Engineering.

Legacy

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences In 2014, Garrick and his wife, Amelia, donated US$9 million to the UCLA Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science, establishing the B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences. Conceived as an umbrella organization uniting multiple research programs, the institute focuses on developing risk-science methodologies and interdisciplinary strategies to mitigate large-scale, low-probability threats—from nuclear accidents and extreme weather events to critical infrastructure failures. In announcing the gift, Garrick highlighted the impetus behind the institute's creation, stating, “We must meet the challenge of managing [twenty-first-century] threats with new thinking, methods, tools, and applications.” While serving as a Distinguished Adjunct Professor at UCLA, he remained active in shaping the institute's direction—providing guidance on research priorities, mentoring junior scholars in quantitative risk methods, and championing public outreach to raise awareness of advanced approaches to risk management.

From its inception, the B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences has hosted workshops, symposia, and training programs designed to bring together industry practitioners, government regulators, and academic researchers. These events address global challenges—including nuclear-waste disposal, space-mission assurance, cybersecurity, and climate-driven risks—and frequently draw on Garrick's foundational PRA framework, emphasizing the importance of data-driven, interdisciplinary solutions. The institute continues to expand upon Garrick's vision by supporting student scholarships, sponsoring collaborative research projects, and disseminating findings through peer-reviewed publications and public forums.